Second quarter GDP growth rate or below 7% steady growth to change ideas
second quarter GDP growth rate or below 7% steady growth to change ideas
China Construction machinery information
Guide: according to the information recently released by the general Administration of customs and the Ministry of finance, China's total import and export value in May was $343.58 billion, an increase of 14.1%, and the import and export scale reached a monthly record high; The fiscal revenue exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1% over the same month last year. However, from January to may, the cumulative fiscal revenue of the country was year-on-year. The device editing of this experimental machine has a solid foundation, with a significant increase back
according to the information released by the General Administration of customs and the Ministry of finance a few days ago, the total value of China's imports and exports in May was 343.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 14.1%, and the scale of imports and exports both hit a monthly record high; The fiscal revenue exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1% over the same month last year, but the year-on-year growth rate of the national cumulative fiscal revenue from January to may fell significantly. Combined with the previously released PMI (purchasing managers' index), CPI (consumer price index) and other indicators, the macroeconomic data in May can be described as mixed. Will China's economic growth continue to decline? Can there be an inflection point of bottoming out in the year? In this regard, we interviewed industry experts
GDP growth rate in the second quarter or less than 7%
"based on various data, China's economy is currently showing a downward trend of growth that continues to intensify." Liuyuanchun, deputy dean of the school of economics of Renmin University of China, told this newspaper. The previously announced PMI in May was 50.4%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest in five months; The producer price index (PPI) fell 1.4% year-on-year, the third consecutive month of negative growth, and the lowest since December 2009. This shows weak demand and sluggish growth, which lights a "red light" for the macro economy
experts interpreted that the import and export growth rate in May was better than the market expectation, which was mainly affected by seasonal factors and the arrangement of the May Day holiday. Generally, may and June are the centralized delivery period of new orders, and the completion and delivery of orders drive the growth of exports. Two of the three-day holidays of this year's "May Day" Festival are arranged in April, making may have more working days, which also drives more trade volume. However, as the trend of the European debt crisis is still uncertain, Sino US trade frictions continue to occur, China's trade dependence on Europe and the United States to save money is still large, and some industry insiders are not optimistic about the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year
according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year in May, 0.3 percentage points faster than that in April. Experts believe that although the industrial growth rate rebounded slightly in May, there was no substantial improvement, industrial production has not changed significantly, and the economy is still in the channel of downward bottoming. Zheng Xinli, executive vice president of the China Center for international economic exchanges, said that the growth rate of industrial added value usually maintains a gap of 3 to 5 percentage points from the growth rate of GDP. If the economic data in June does not significantly improve, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter may fall below 7%
the slowdown did not cause serious problems
although China's economic growth has slowed for five consecutive quarters, most experts did not express excessive concern. "I don't think China's economy will have a hard landing." Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, stressed to this newspaper: "we have seen some data decline, which seems to feel that the economy is in recession, but this is the result of active structural adjustment, compression of excess capacity and reduction of invalid investment demand. It is a normal phenomenon. China's economy has been slowing down gently without serious problems."In recent days, the state has introduced a series of measures to stabilize economic growth, including encouraging private capital investment, accelerating project approval, supporting the decentralization of financial subsidies for energy-saving household appliance consumption, expanding exports from emerging markets, and reducing the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates. Experts said that the current range grading refers to one of the characteristic parameters of the experimental machine. Some policies have been good, which will stimulate investment, consumption and foreign trade, and help boost market confidence. However, the current policies have not been fully "opened", and some are still at the level of documents, which do not produce immediate results. "With the increase of investment, the economy will gradually recover in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the end of June will usher in an economic inflection point." Liu Yuanchun said
Jia Kang, director of the Institute of financial Sciences of the Ministry of finance, told this newspaper that the existing data can only reflect the relatively sluggish economic growth in the first half of the year. When we look again in June and July, the economic situation will be clearer. "If it goes well, China's economy will hit the bottom in the second quarter; even if it is poor, it will reach the bottom in the third quarter and rebound in the fourth quarter." Jia Kang said
steady growth cannot rely on "issuing money"
"in view of the current situation of weak growth, the state can adjust policies appropriately, but should not be excessive. Because the problems facing our economy are not completely solvable by policies." Liu Yuanchun said that there is a certain contradiction between the goal of maintaining growth in the short term and the policy of medium - and long-term structural adjustment. The government should not unilaterally introduce policies to stimulate the economy in the short term and bury hidden dangers in the long term, as long as it ensures that the economic downturn is not too strong
Zuo Xiaolei pointed out that China's steady growth policy this year did not adopt a simple way of "issuing money", which is correct. "If we want to maintain steady and healthy economic growth, we should strive to meet effective investment needs and guide capital into some emerging and sustainable industries." Zuoxiaolei said, "China's service industry has huge market potential. In the past, the consumption demand we emphasized generally refers to physical consumption. In fact, the service consumption can be improved to a high degree. For example, the pension industry, social demand is very strong, but the investment can't be immediately reported back, and banks and private capital are unwilling to invest, which requires strong policy guidance."
Jia Kang believes that there is no need to carry out policy "transformation" to stabilize growth, but should maintain the tone of seeking progress in stability, optimize policy mix, increase implementation efforts, and respond in a timely manner. In response to some recent calls for "deregulation of the property market", he pointed out that real estate regulation cannot be completely relaxed, but "targeted easing" can be adopted for the first set of housing. "We should try our best to meet the rigid needs of ordinary people for housing." Jia Kang said, "what is rigid demand? The situation in different regions is different, and we can't apply it all. Local governments should formulate targeted preferential policies according to the actual situation."
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